Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere
In
As of March 2024, the monthly average concentration of CO2 reached a new record high of 425.22 parts per million (ppm), marking an increase of 4.7 ppm over March 2023. By the latest measurement, levels had further escalated to 427.48 ppm.[5] This continuous increase in CO2 concentrations is a clear indicator of ongoing global environmental stress, primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, which is the principal cause of this rise and also a major contributor to climate change.[6] Other significant human activities that emit CO2 include cement production, deforestation, and biomass burning.
Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas. It absorbs and emits
The increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane increase the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by the atmosphere. This has led to a rise in average global temperature and ocean acidification. Another direct effect is the CO2 fertilization effect. The increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 causes a range of further effects of climate change on the environment and human living conditions.
The present atmospheric concentration of CO2 is the highest for 14 million years.[10] Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere were as high as 4,000 ppm during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago, and as low as 180 ppm during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years.[2] Reconstructed temperature records for the last 420 million years indicate that atmospheric CO2 concentrations peaked at approximately 2,000 ppm. This peak happened during the Devonian period (400 million years ago). Another peak occurred in the Triassic period (220–200 million years ago).[11]
Current concentration and future trends
Current situation
Since the start of the
Each part per million of CO2 in the atmosphere represents approximately 2.13
It was pointed out in 2021 that "the current rates of increase of the concentration of the major greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) are unprecedented over at least the last 800,000 years".[17]: 515
It has been estimated that 2,400 gigatons of CO₂ have been emitted by human activity since 1850, with some absorbed by oceans and land, and about 950 gigatons remaining in the atmosphere. Around 2020 the emission rate was over 40 gigatons per year.[18]
Some fraction (a projected 20–35%) of the fossil carbon transferred thus far will persist in the atmosphere as elevated CO2 levels for many thousands of years after these carbon transfer activities begin to subside.[19][20]
Annual and regional fluctuations
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations fluctuate slightly with the seasons, falling during the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer as plants consume the gas and rising during northern autumn and winter as plants go dormant or die and decay. The level drops by about 6 or 7 ppm (about 50 Gt) from May to September during the Northern Hemisphere's growing season, and then goes up by about 8 or 9 ppm. The Northern Hemisphere dominates the annual cycle of CO2 concentration because it has much greater land area and plant biomass than the Southern Hemisphere. Concentrations reach a peak in May as the Northern Hemisphere spring greenup begins, and decline to a minimum in October, near the end of the growing season.[21][22]
Concentrations also vary on a regional basis, most strongly near the ground with much smaller variations aloft. In urban areas concentrations are generally higher[23] and indoors they can reach 10 times background levels.
Measurements and predictions made in the recent past
- Data from 2009 found that the global mean CO2 concentration was rising at a rate of approximately 2 ppm/year and accelerating.[24][25]
- The daily average concentration of atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory first exceeded 400 ppm on 10 May 2013[26][27] although this concentration had already been reached in the Arctic in June 2012.[28] Data from 2013 showed that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is this high "for the first time in 55 years of measurement—and probably more than 3 million years of Earth history."[29]
- As of 2018, CO2 concentrations were measured to be 410 ppm.[24][30]
Measurement techniques
The concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are expressed as parts per million by volume (abbreviated as ppmv or just ppm). To convert from the usual ppmv units to ppm mass, multiply by the ratio of the molar weight of CO2 to that of air, i.e. times 1.52 (44.01 divided by 28.96).
The first reproducibly accurate measurements of atmospheric CO2 were from flask sample measurements made by Dave Keeling at Caltech in the 1950s.[31] Measurements at Mauna Loa have been ongoing since 1958. Additionally, measurements are also made at many other sites around the world. Many measurement sites are part of larger global networks. Global network data are often made publicly available.
Data networks
There are several surface measurement (including flasks and continuous in situ) networks including
From these measurements, further products are made which integrate data from the various sources. These products also address issues such as data discontinuity and sparseness. GLOBALVIEW-CO2 is one of these products.[36]
Ongoing ground-based total column measurements began more recently. Column measurements typically refer to an averaged column amount denoted XCO2, rather than a surface only measurement. These measurements are made by the TCCON. These data are also hosted on the CDIAC, and made publicly available according to the data use policy.[37]
Satellite measurements
Analytical methods to investigate sources of CO2
- The burning of long-buried fossil fuels releases CO2 containing carbon of different isotopic ratios to those of living plants, enabling distinction between natural and human-caused contributions to CO2 concentration.[38]
- There are higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere, where most of the world's population lives (and emissions originate from), compared to the southern hemisphere. This difference has increased as anthropogenic emissions have increased.[39]
- Atmospheric O2 levels are decreasing in Earth's atmosphere as it reacts with the carbon in fossil fuels to form CO2.[40]
Causes of the current increase
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions
While CO2 absorption and release is always happening as a result of natural processes, the recent rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is known to be mainly due to human (anthropogenic) activity.[17] Anthropogenic carbon emissions exceed the amount that can be taken up or balanced out by natural sinks.[42] Thus carbon dioxide has gradually accumulated in the atmosphere and, as of May 2022, its concentration is 50% above pre-industrial levels.[1]
The extraction and burning of fossil fuels, releasing carbon that has been
Burning fossil fuels such as
The International Energy Agency estimates that the top 1% of emitters globally each had carbon footprints of over 50 tonnes of CO2 in 2021, more than 1,000 times greater than those of the bottom 1% of emitters. The global average energy-related carbon footprint is around 4.7 tonnes of CO2 per person.[48]
Roles in natural processes on Earth
Greenhouse effect
Earth's natural greenhouse effect makes life as we know it possible and carbon dioxide plays a significant role in providing for the relatively high temperature on Earth. The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere.[49][50][51] Without the greenhouse effect, the Earth's average surface temperature would be about −18 °C (−0.4 °F)[52][53] compared to Earth's actual average surface temperature of approximately 14 °C (57.2 °F).[54]
Water is responsible for most (about 36–70%) of the total greenhouse effect, and the role of water vapor as a greenhouse gas depends on temperature. On Earth, carbon dioxide is the most relevant, direct anthropologically influenced greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide is often mentioned in the context of its increased influence as a greenhouse gas since the pre-industrial (1750) era. In 2013, the increase in CO2 was estimated to be responsible for 1.82 W m−2 of the 2.63 W m−2 change in radiative forcing on Earth (about 70%).[55]
The concept of atmospheric CO2 increasing ground temperature was first published by
Part of a series on the |
Carbon cycle |
---|
Carbon cycle
Atmospheric carbon dioxide plays an integral role in the Earth's carbon cycle whereby CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by some natural processes such as
Natural sources of atmospheric CO2 include
Most sources of CO2 emissions are natural, and are balanced to various degrees by similar CO2 sinks. For example, the decay of organic material in forests, grasslands, and other land vegetation - including forest fires - results in the release of about 436 gigatonnes of CO2 (containing 119 gigatonnes carbon) every year, while CO2 uptake by new growth on land counteracts these releases, absorbing 451 Gt (123 Gt C).[58] Although much CO2 in the early atmosphere of the young Earth was produced by volcanic activity, modern volcanic activity releases only 130 to 230 megatonnes of CO2 each year.[59] Natural sources are more or less balanced by natural sinks, in the form of chemical and biological processes which remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
Overall, there is a large natural flux of atmospheric CO2 into and out of the
The ratio of the increase in atmospheric CO2 to emitted CO2 is known as the airborne fraction. This ratio varies in the short-term and is typically about 45% over longer (5-year) periods.[61] Estimated carbon in global terrestrial vegetation increased from approximately 740 gigatonnes in 1910 to 780 gigatonnes in 1990.[63]
Photosynthesis
Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere is essential to life and to most of the planetary biosphere. The average rate of energy capture by photosynthesis globally is approximately 130
Photosynthetic organisms are
Carbon dioxide is converted into sugars in a process called
Oceanic carbon cycle
The Earth's oceans contain a large amount of CO2 in the form of bicarbonate and carbonate ions—much more than the amount in the atmosphere. The bicarbonate is produced in reactions between rock, water, and carbon dioxide. One example is the dissolution of calcium carbonate:
- CaCO
3 + CO2 + H
2O ⇌ Ca2+
+ 2 HCO−
3
Reactions like this tend to buffer changes in atmospheric CO2. Since the right side of the reaction produces an acidic compound, adding CO2 on the left side decreases the pH of seawater, a process which has been termed ocean acidification (pH of the ocean becomes more acidic although the pH value remains in the alkaline range). Reactions between CO2 and non-carbonate rocks also add bicarbonate to the seas. This can later undergo the reverse of the above reaction to form carbonate rocks, releasing half of the bicarbonate as CO2. Over hundreds of millions of years, this has produced huge quantities of carbonate rocks.
From 1850 until 2022, the ocean has absorbed 26% of total anthropogenic emissions.[12] However, the rate at which the ocean will take it up in the future is less certain. Even if equilibrium is reached, including dissolution of carbonate minerals, the increased concentration of bicarbonate and decreased or unchanged concentration of carbonate ion will give rise to a higher concentration of un-ionized carbonic acid and dissolved CO2. This higher concentration in the seas, along with higher temperatures, would mean a higher equilibrium concentration of CO2 in the air.[71][72]
Carbon moves between the atmosphere, vegetation (dead and alive), the soil, the surface layer of the ocean, and the deep ocean.
Effects of current increase
Direct effects
Direct effects of increasing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere include increasing global temperatures, ocean acidification and a CO2 fertilization effect on plants and crops.[73]
Temperature rise on land
The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 1.09 °C (range: 0.95 to 1.20 °C) from 1850–1900 to 2011–2020, based on multiple independently produced datasets.[76]: 5 The trend is faster since 1970s than in any other 50-year period over at least the last 2000 years.[76]: 8
Most of the observed warming occurred in two periods: around 1900 to around 1940 and around 1970 onwards;[77] the cooling/plateau from 1940 to 1970 has been mostly attributed to sulfate aerosol.[78][79]: 207 Some of the temperature variations over this time period may also be due to ocean circulation patterns.[80]Temperature rise in oceans
It is clear that the ocean is warming as a result of climate change, and this rate of warming is increasing.
Ocean acidification
CO2 fertilization effect
The
Terrestrial ecosystems have reduced atmospheric CO2 concentrations and have partially mitigated climate change effects.[99] The response by plants to the carbon fertilization effect is unlikely to significantly reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next century due to the increasing anthropogenic influences on atmospheric CO2.[91][92][100][101] Earth's vegetated lands have shown significant greening since the early 1980s[102] largely due to rising levels of atmospheric CO2.[103][104][105][106]
Theory predicts the tropics to have the largest uptake due to the carbon fertilization effect, but this has not been observed. The amount of CO2 uptake from CO2 fertilization also depends on how forests respond to climate change, and if they are protected from deforestation.[107]Other direct effects
CO2 emissions have also led to the stratosphere contracting by 400 meters since 1980, which could affect satellite operations, GPS systems and radio communications.[108]
Indirect effects and impacts
Approaches for reducing CO2 concentrations
Carbon dioxide has unique long-term effects on climate change that are nearly "irreversible" for a thousand years after emissions stop (zero further emissions). The greenhouse gases
Various techniques have been proposed for removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Concentrations in the geologic past
Estimates in 2023 found that the current carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere may be the highest it has been in the last 14 million years.
Carbon dioxide is believed to have played an important effect in regulating Earth's temperature throughout its 4.54 billion year history. Early in the Earth's life, scientists have found evidence of liquid water indicating a warm world even though the Sun's output is believed to have only been 70% of what it is today. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Earth's atmosphere might help explain this
Carbon dioxide concentrations have shown several cycles of variation from about 180 parts per million during the deep glaciations of the
The production of free oxygen by
Drivers of ancient-Earth CO2 concentration
On long timescales, atmospheric CO2 concentration is determined by the balance among geochemical processes including organic carbon burial in sediments, silicate rock weathering, and volcanic degassing. The net effect of slight imbalances in the carbon cycle over tens to hundreds of millions of years has been to reduce atmospheric CO2. On a timescale of billions of years, such downward trend appears bound to continue indefinitely as occasional massive historical releases of buried carbon due to volcanism will become less frequent (as earth mantle cooling and progressive exhaustion of internal radioactive heat proceed further). The rates of these processes are extremely slow; hence they are of no relevance to the atmospheric CO2 concentration over the next hundreds or thousands of years.
Photosynthesis in the geologic past
Over the course of Earth's geologic history CO2 concentrations have played a role in biological evolution. The first photosynthetic organisms probably
Measuring ancient-Earth CO2 concentration
The most direct method for measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations for periods before instrumental sampling is to measure bubbles of air (
CO2 mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by around 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. One study using evidence from
Ice cores provide evidence for greenhouse gas concentration variations over the past 800,000 years. Both CO2 and CH
4 concentrations vary between glacial and interglacial phases, and these variations correlate strongly with temperature. Direct data does not exist for periods earlier than those represented in the ice core record, a record that indicates that CO2 mole fractions stayed within a range of 180 ppm to 280 ppm throughout the last 800,000 years, until the increase of the last 250 years. However, various proxy measurements and models suggest larger variations in past epochs: 500 million years ago CO2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now.[134]
Various proxy measurements have been used to try to determine atmospheric CO2 concentrations millions of years in the past. These include
600 to 400 million years ago
There is evidence for high CO2 concentrations of over 6,000 ppm between 600 and 400 million years ago, and of over 3,000 ppm between 200 and 150 million years ago.[136][failed verification]
Indeed, higher CO2 concentrations are thought to have prevailed throughout most of the
Earlier still, a 200-million year period of intermittent, widespread glaciation extending close to the equator (Snowball Earth) appears to have been ended suddenly, about 550 Ma, by a colossal volcanic outgassing that raised the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere abruptly to 12%, about 350 times modern levels, causing extreme greenhouse conditions and carbonate deposition as limestone at the rate of about 1 mm per day.[141] This episode marked the close of the Precambrian Eon, and was succeeded by the generally warmer conditions of the Phanerozoic, during which multicellular animal and plant life evolved. No volcanic CO2 emission of comparable scale has occurred since. In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are approximately 0.645 billion tons of CO2 per year, whereas humans contribute 29 billion tons of CO2 each year.[142][141][143][144]
60 to 5 million years ago
Atmospheric CO2 concentration continued to fall after about 60 million years ago. About 34 million years ago, the time of the Eocene–Oligocene extinction event and when the Antarctic ice sheet started to take its current form, CO2 was about 760 ppm,[145] and there is geochemical evidence that concentrations were less than 300 ppm by about 20 million years ago. Decreasing CO2 concentration, with a tipping point of 600 ppm, was the primary agent forcing Antarctic glaciation.[146] Low CO2 concentrations may have been the stimulus that favored the evolution of C4 plants, which increased greatly in abundance between 7 and 5 million years ago.[123]
See also
Notes
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External links
- Current global map of carbon dioxide concentrations.
- Global Carbon Dioxide Circulation (NASA; 13 December 2016)
- Video (03:10) – A Year in the Life of Earth's CO2 (NASA; 17 November 2014)