Sea level rise
Between 1901 and 2018, average global
Sea level rise lags behind changes in the Earth's temperature, and sea level rise will therefore continue to accelerate between now and 2050 in response to warming that has already happened.[8] What happens after that depends on human greenhouse gas emissions. Sea level rise would slow between 2050 and 2100 if there are very deep cuts in emissions. It could then reach slightly over 30 cm (1 ft) from now by 2100. With high emissions it would accelerate. It could rise by 1.01 m (3+1⁄3 ft) or even 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by then.[6][4]: 1302 In the long run, sea level rise would amount to 2–3 m (7–10 ft) over the next 2000 years if warming amounts to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). It would be 19–22 metres (62–72 ft) if warming peaks at 5 °C (9.0 °F).[6]: 21
Rising seas affect every coastal and island population on Earth.
Local factors like
Societies can adapt to sea level rise in multiple ways. Managed retreat, accommodating coastal change, or protecting against sea level rise through hard-construction practices like seawalls[20] are hard approaches. There are also soft approaches such as dune rehabilitation and beach nourishment. Sometimes these adaptation strategies go hand in hand. At other times choices must be made among different strategies.[21] A managed retreat strategy is difficult if an area's population is increasing rapidly. This is a particularly acute problem for Africa.[22] Poorer nations may also struggle to implement the same approaches to adapt to sea level rise as richer states. Sea level rise at some locations may be compounded by other environmental issues. One example is subsidence in sinking cities.[23] Coastal ecosystems typically adapt to rising sea levels by moving inland. Natural or artificial barriers may make that impossible.[24]
Observations
Between 1901 and 2018, the global mean sea level rose by about 20 cm (7.9 in).
Regional variations
Sea level rise is not uniform around the globe. Some land masses are moving up or down as a consequence of subsidence (land sinking or settling) or post-glacial rebound (land rising as melting ice reduces weight). Therefore, local relative sea level rise may be higher or lower than the global average. Changing ice masses also affect the distribution of sea water around the globe through gravity.[26][27]
When a glacier or ice sheet melts, it loses mass. This reduces its gravitational pull. In some places near current and former glaciers and ice sheets, this has caused water levels to drop. At the same time water levels will increase more than average further away from the ice sheet. Thus ice loss in
Many
Projections
Several approaches are used for sea level rise (SLR) projections.
By 2013, improvements in modelling had addressed this issue, and model and semi-empirical projections for the year 2100 are now very similar.[35][34] Yet, semi-empirical estimates are reliant on the quality of available observations and struggle to represent non-linearities, while processes without enough available information about them cannot be modelled.[35] Thus, another approach is to combine the opinions of a large number of scientists in what is known as a structured expert judgement (SEJ).[34]
Variations of these primary approaches exist.[34] For instance, large climate models are always in demand, so less complex models are often used in their place for simpler tasks like projecting flood risk in the specific regions. A structured expert judgement may be used in combination with modelling to determine which outcomes are more or less likely, which is known as "shifted SEJ". Semi-empirical techniques can be combined with the so-called "intermediate-complexity" models.[34] After 2016, some ice sheet modelling exhibited the so-called ice cliff instability in Antarctica, which results in substantially faster disintegration and retreat than normally simulated.[37][38] The differences are limited with low warming, but at higher warming levels, ice cliff instability simulates far greater sea level rise than any other approach.[34]
Projections for the 21st century
The lowest scenario in AR5, RCP2.6, would see greenhouse gas emissions low enough to meet the goal of limiting warming by 2100 to 2 °C (3.6 °F). It shows sea level rise in 2100 of about 44 cm (17 in) with a range of 28–61 cm (11–24 in). The "moderate" scenario, where CO2 emissions take a decade or two to peak and its atmospheric concentration does not plateau until the 2070s is called RCP 4.5. Its likely range of sea level rise is 36–71 cm (14–28 in). The highest scenario in RCP8.5 pathway sea level would rise between 52 and 98 cm (20+1⁄2 and 38+1⁄2 in).[27][41] AR6 had equivalents for both scenarios, but it estimated larger sea level rise under both. In AR6, the SSP1-2.6 pathway results in a range of 32–62 cm (12+1⁄2–24+1⁄2 in) by 2100. The "moderate" SSP2-4.5 results in a 44–76 cm (17+1⁄2–30 in) range by 2100 and SSP5-8.5 led to 65–101 cm (25+1⁄2–40 in).[4]: 1302
This general increase of projections in AR6 came after the improvements in ice-sheet modelling and the incorporation of structured expert judgements.[40] These decisions came as the observed ice-sheet erosion in Greenland and Antarctica had matched the upper-end range of the AR5 projections by 2020,[42][43] and the finding that AR5 projections were likely too slow next to an extrapolation of observed sea level rise trends, while the subsequent reports had improved in this regard.[44] Further, AR5 was criticized by multiple researchers for excluding detailed estimates the impact of "low-confidence" processes like marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instability,[45][46][47] which can substantially accelerate ice loss to potentially add "tens of centimeters" to sea level rise within this century.[27] AR6 includes a version of SSP5-8.5 where these processes take place, and in that case, sea level rise of up to 1.6 m (5+1⁄3 ft) by 2100 could not be ruled out.[4]: 1302
Role of instability processes
The greatest uncertainty with sea level rise projections is associated with the so-called
The latter posits that coastal ice cliffs which exceed ~90 m (295+1⁄2 ft) in above-ground height and are ~800 m (2,624+1⁄2 ft) in basal (underground) height are likely to rapidly collapse under their own weight once the
Marine ice cliff instability had also been very controversial, since it was proposed as a modelling exercise,[48] and the observational evidence from both the past and the present is very limited and ambiguous.[55] So far, only one episode of seabed gouging by ice from the Younger Dryas period appears truly consistent with this theory,[56] but it had lasted for an estimated 900 years,[56] so it is unclear if it supports rapid sea level rise in the present.[55] Modelling which investigated the hypothesis after 2016 often suggested that the ice shelves in the real world may collapse too slowly to make this scenario relevant,[57] or that ice mélange - debris produced as the glacier breaks down - would quickly build up in front of the glacier and significantly slow or even outright stop the instability soon after it began.[58][59][60][54]
Due to these uncertainties, some scientists - including the originators of the hypothesis, Robert DeConto and David Pollard - have suggested that the best way to resolve the question would be to precisely determine sea level rise during the
Post-2100 sea level rise
Even if the temperature stabilizes, significant sea-level rise (SLR) will continue for centuries,
By 2021, the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report was able to provide estimates for sea level rise in 2150. Keeping warming to 1.5 °C under the SSP1-1.9 scenario would result in sea level rise in the 17–83% range of 37–86 cm (14+1⁄2–34 in). In the SSP1-2.6 pathway the range would be 46–99 cm (18–39 in), for SSP2-4.5 a 66–133 cm (26–52+1⁄2 in) range by 2100 and for SSP5-8.5 a rise of 98–188 cm (38+1⁄2–74 in). It stated that the "low-confidence, high impact" projected 0.63–1.60 m (2–5 ft) mean sea level rise by 2100, and that by 2150, the total sea level rise in his scenario would be in the range of 0.98–4.82 m (3–16 ft) by 2150.[4]: 1302 AR6 also provided lower-confidence estimates for year 2300 sea level rise under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 with various impact assumptions. In the best case scenario, under SSP1-2.6 with no ice sheet acceleration after 2100, the estimate was only 0.8–2.0 metres (2.6–6.6 ft). In the worst estimated scenario, SSP-8.5 with ice cliff instability, the projected range for total sea level rise was 9.5–16.2 metres (31–53 ft) by the year 2300.[4]: 1306
Projections for subsequent years are more difficult. In 2019, when 22 experts on ice sheets were asked to estimate 2200 and 2300 SLR under the 5 °C warming scenario, there were 90%
After 500 years, sea level rise from thermal expansion alone may have reached only half of its eventual level - likely within ranges of 0.5–2 m (1+1⁄2–6+1⁄2 ft).[68] Additionally, tipping points of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are likely to play a larger role over such timescales.[69] Ice loss from Antarctica is likely to dominate very long-term SLR, especially if the warming exceeds 2 °C (3.6 °F). Continued carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources could cause additional tens of metres of sea level rise, over the next millennia.[70] Burning of all fossil fuels on Earth is sufficient to melt the entire Antarctic ice sheet, causing about 58 m (190 ft) of sea level rise.[71]
Year 2021 IPCC estimates for the amount of sea level rise over the next 2,000 years project that:
- At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 2–3 m (6+1⁄2–10 ft)
- At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 2–6 m (6+1⁄2–19+1⁄2 ft)
- At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 19–22 m (62+1⁄2–72 ft)[6]: SPM-21
Sea levels would continue to rise for several thousand years after the ceasing of emissions, due to the slow nature of climate response to heat. The same estimates on a timescale of 10,000 years project that:
- At a warming peak of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), global sea levels would rise 6–7 m (19+1⁄2–23 ft)
- At a warming peak of 2 °C (3.6 °F), sea levels would rise 8–13 m (26–42+1⁄2 ft)
- At a warming peak of 5 °C (9.0 °F), sea levels would rise 28–37 m (92–121+1⁄2 ft)[4]: 1306
Measurements
Variations in the amount of water in the oceans, changes in its volume, or varying land elevation compared to the sea surface can drive sea level changes. Over a consistent time period, assessments can attribute contributions to sea level rise and provide early indications of change in trajectory. This helps to inform adaptation plans.
Satellites
Since the launch of TOPEX/Poseidon in 1992, an overlapping series of altimetric satellites has been continuously recording the sea level and its changes.[74] These satellites can measure the hills and valleys in the sea caused by currents and detect trends in their height. To measure the distance to the sea surface, the satellites send a microwave pulse towards Earth and record the time it takes to return after reflecting off the ocean's surface. Microwave radiometers correct the additional delay caused by water vapor in the atmosphere. Combining these data with the location of the spacecraft determines the sea-surface height to within a few centimetres.[75] These satellite measurements have estimated rates of sea level rise for 1993–2017 at 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (1⁄8 ± 1⁄64 in) per year.[76]
Satellites are useful for measuring regional variations in sea level. An example is the substantial rise between 1993 and 2012 in the western tropical Pacific. This sharp rise has been linked to increasing
Tide gauges
The global network of tide gauges is the other important source of sea-level observations. Compared to the satellite record, this record has major spatial gaps but covers a much longer period.[80] Coverage of tide gauges started mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. Data for the Southern Hemisphere remained scarce up to the 1970s.[80] The longest running sea-level measurements, NAP or Amsterdam Ordnance Datum were established in 1675, in Amsterdam.[81] Record collection is also extensive in Australia. They include measurements by Thomas Lempriere, an amateur meteorologist, beginning in 1837. Lempriere established a sea-level benchmark on a small cliff on the Isle of the Dead near the Port Arthur convict settlement in 1841.[82]
Together with satellite data for the period after 1992, this network established that global mean sea level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr. (For the 20th century the average is 1.7 mm/yr.)
Regional differences are also visible in the tide gauge data. Some are caused by local sea level differences. Others are due to vertical land movements. In Europe, only some land areas are rising while the others are sinking. Since 1970, most tidal stations have measured higher seas. However sea levels along the northern Baltic Sea have dropped due to post-glacial rebound.[86]
Past sea level rise
Since the Last Glacial Maximum, about 20,000 years ago, sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft). Rates vary from less than 1 mm/year during the pre-industrial era to 40+ mm/year when major ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia melted. Meltwater pulses are periods of fast sea level rise caused by the rapid disintegration of these ice sheets. The rate of sea level rise started to slow down about 8,200 years before today. Sea level was almost constant for the last 2,500 years. The recent trend of rising sea level started at the end of the 19th or beginning of the 20th century.[89]
Causes
The three main reasons warming causes global sea level to rise are the expansion of oceans due to heating, water inflow from melting ice sheets and water inflow from glaciers. Glacier retreat and ocean expansion have dominated sea level rise since the start of the 20th century.[36] Some of the losses from glaciers are offset when precipitation falls as snow, accumulates and over time forms glacial ice. If precipitation, surface processes and ice loss at the edge balance each other, sea level remains the same. Because of this precipitation began as water vapor evaporated from the ocean surface, effects of climate change on the water cycle can even increase ice build-up. However, this effect is not enough to fully offset ice losses, and sea level rise continues to accelerate.[22][90][91][92]
The contributions of the two large ice sheets, in Greenland and Antarctica, are likely to increase in the 21st century.[36] They store most of the land ice (~99.5%) and have a sea-level equivalent (SLE) of 7.4 m (24 ft 3 in) for Greenland and 58.3 m (191 ft 3 in) for Antarctica.[7] Thus, melting of all the ice on Earth would result in about 70 m (229 ft 8 in) of sea level rise,[93] although this would require at least 10,000 years and up to 10 °C (18 °F) of global warming.[94][95]
Ocean heating
The oceans store more than 90% of the extra heat added to the climate system by
When the ocean gains heat, the water expands and sea level rises. Warmer water and water under great pressure (due to depth) expand more than cooler water and water under less pressure.[27]: 1161 Consequently, cold Arctic Ocean water will expand less than warm tropical water. Different climate models present slightly different patterns of ocean heating. So their projections do not agree fully on how much ocean heating contributes to sea level rise.[100]
Antarctic ice loss
The large volume of ice on the Antarctic continent stores around 60% of the world's fresh water. Excluding groundwater this is 90%.[101] Antarctica is experiencing ice loss from coastal glaciers in the West Antarctica and some glaciers of East Antarctica. However it is gaining mass from the increased snow build-up inland, particularly in the East. This leads to contradicting trends.[92][102] There are different satellite methods for measuring ice mass and change. Combining them helps to reconcile the differences.[103] However, there can still be variations between the studies. In 2018, a systematic review estimated average annual ice loss of 43 billion tons (Gt) across the entire continent between 1992 and 2002. This tripled to an annual average of 220 Gt from 2012 to 2017.[90][104] However, a 2021 analysis of data from four different research satellite systems (Envisat, European Remote-Sensing Satellite, GRACE and GRACE-FO and ICESat) indicated annual mass loss of only about 12 Gt from 2012 to 2016. This was due to greater ice gain in East Antarctica than estimated earlier.[92]
In the future, it is known that West Antarctica at least will continue to lose mass, and the likely future losses of sea ice and ice shelves, which block warmer currents from direct contact with the ice sheet, can accelerate declines even in East Antarctica.[105][106] Altogether, Antarctica is the source of the largest uncertainty for future sea level projections.[107] In 2019, the SROCC assessed several studies attempting to estimate 2300 sea level rise caused by ice loss in Antarctica alone, arriving at projected estimates of 0.07–0.37 metres (0.23–1.21 ft) for the low emission RCP2.6 scenario, and 0.60–2.89 metres (2.0–9.5 ft) in the high emission RCP8.5 scenario.[4]: 1272 This wide range of estimates is mainly due to the uncertainties regarding marine ice sheet and marine ice cliff instabilities.[49][52][34]
East Antarctica
The world's largest potential source of sea level rise is the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS). It is 2.2 km thick on average and holds enough ice to raise global sea levels by 53.3 m (174 ft 10 in)[108] Its great thickness and high elevation make it more stable than the other ice sheets.[109] As of the early 2020s, most studies show that it is still gaining mass.[110][90][92][102] Some analyses have suggested it began to lose mass in the 2000s.[111][91][106] However they over-extrapolated some observed losses on to the poorly observed areas. A more complete observational record shows continued mass gain.[92]
In spite of the net mass gain, some East Antarctica glaciers have lost ice in recent decades due to
On the other hand, the whole EAIS would not definitely collapse until global warming reaches 7.5 °C (13.5 °F), with a range between 5 °C (9.0 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). It would take at least 10,000 years to disappear.[94][95] Some scientists have estimated that warming would have to reach at least 6 °C (11 °F) to melt two thirds of its volume.[118]
West Antarctica
East Antarctica contains the largest potential source of sea level rise. However the
The median estimated increase in sea level rise from Antarctica by 2100 is ~11 cm (5 in). There is no difference between scenarios, because the increased warming would
The contribution of these glaciers to global sea levels has already accelerated since the year 2000. The Thwaites Glacier now accounts for 4% of global sea level rise.[121][123][124] It could start to lose even more ice if the Thwaites Ice Shelf fails and would no longer stabilize it, which could potentially occur in mid-2020s.[125] A combination of ice sheet instability with other important but hard-to-model processes like hydrofracturing (meltwater collects atop the ice sheet, pools into fractures and forces them open)[45] or smaller-scale changes in ocean circulation[126][127][128] could cause the WAIS to contribute up to 41 cm (16 in) by 2100 under the low-emission scenario and up to 57 cm (22 in) under the highest-emission one.[4] Ice cliff instability would cause a contribution of 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) or more if it were applicable.[37][40]
The melting of all the
Once ice loss from the West Antarctica is triggered, the only way to restore it to near-present values is by lowering the global temperature to 1 °C (1.8 °F) below the preindustrial level. This would be 2 °C (3.6 °F) below the temperature of 2020.[118] Other researchers suggested that a climate engineering intervention to stabilize the ice sheet's glaciers may delay its loss by centuries and give more time to adapt. However this is an uncertain proposal, and would end up as one of the most expensive projects ever attempted.[138][139]
Isostatic rebound
2021 research indicates that
Greenland ice sheet loss
Most ice on Greenland is in the
In 2021,
Greenland's peripheral glaciers and ice caps crossed an irreversible tipping point around 1997. Sea level rise from their loss is now unstoppable.[146][147][148] However the temperature changes in future, the warming of 2000–2019 had already damaged the ice sheet enough for it to eventually lose ~3.3% of its volume. This is leading to 27 cm (10+1⁄2 in) of future sea level rise.[149] At a certain level of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will almost completely melt. Ice cores show this happened at least once during the last million years, when the temperatures have at most been 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) warmer than the preindustrial.[150][151]
2012 research suggested that the tipping point of the ice sheet was between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3.2 °C (5.8 °F).[152] 2023 modelling has narrowed the tipping threshold to a 1.7 °C (3.1 °F)-2.3 °C (4.1 °F) range. If temperatures reach or exceed that level, reducing the global temperature to 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above pre-industrial levels or lower would prevent the loss of the entire ice sheet. One way to do this in theory would be large-scale carbon dioxide removal. But it would also cause greater losses and sea level rise from Greenland than if the threshold was not breached in the first place.[153] Otherwise, the ice sheet would take between 10,000 and 15,000 years to disintegrate entirely once the tipping point had been crossed. The most likely estimate is 10,000 years.[94][95] If climate change continues along its worst trajectory and temperatures continue to rise quickly over multiple centuries, it would only take 1,000 years.[154]
Mountain glacier loss
There are roughly 200,000 glaciers on Earth, which are spread out across all continents.[156] Less than 1% of glacier ice is in mountain glaciers, compared to 99% in Greenland and Antarctica. However, this small size also makes mountain glaciers more vulnerable to melting than the larger ice sheets. This means they have had a disproportionate contribution to historical sea level rise and are set to contribute a smaller, but still significant fraction of sea level rise in the 21st century.[157] Observational and modelling studies of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps show they contribute 0.2-0.4 mm per year to sea level rise, averaged over the 20th century.[158] The contribution for the 2012–2016 period was nearly as large as that of Greenland. It was 0.63 mm of sea level rise per year, equivalent to 34% of sea level rise from land ice sources.[143] Glaciers contributed around 40% to sea level rise during the 20th century, with estimates for the 21st century of around 30%.[7]
In 2023, a
Sea ice loss
Sea ice loss contributes very slightly to global sea level rise. If the melt water from ice floating in the sea was exactly the same as sea water then, according to
Changes to land water storage
Human activity impacts how much water is stored on land. Dams retain large quantities of water, which is stored on land rather than flowing into the sea, though the total quantity stored will vary from time to time. On the other hand, humans extract water from lakes, wetlands and underground reservoirs for drinking and food production. This often causes subsidence. Furthermore, the hydrological cycle is influenced by climate change and deforestation. In the 20th century, these processes had approximately cancelled out each other's impact on sea level rise, but dam building has slowed down and is expected to stay low for the 21st century.[161][27]: 1155
Water redistribution caused by irrigation from 1993 to 2010 caused a drift of Earth's rotational pole by 78.48 centimetres (30.90 in). This caused groundwater depletion equivalent to a global sea level rise of 6.24 millimetres (0.246 in).[162]
Impacts
On people and societies
Sea-level rise has many impacts. They include higher and more frequent high-tide and
Changes in emissions are likely to have only a small effect on the extent of sea level rise by 2050.[8] So projected sea level rise could put tens of millions of people at risk by then. Scientists estimate that 2050 levels of sea level rise would result in about 150 million people under the water line during high tide. About 300 million would be in places flooded every year. This projection is based on the distribution of population in 2010. It does not take into account the effects of population growth and human migration. These figures are 40 million and 50 million more respectively than the numbers at risk in 2010.[14][165] By 2100, there would be another 40 million people under the water line during high tide if sea level rise remains low. This figure would be 80 million for a high estimate of median sea level rise.[14] Ice sheet processes under the highest emission scenario would result in sea level rise of well over one metre (3+1⁄4 ft) by 2100. This could be as much as over two metres (6+1⁄2 ft),[17][6]: TS-45 This could result in as many as 520 million additional people ending up under the water line during high tide and 640 million in places flooded every year, compared to the 2010 population distribution.[14]
Over the longer term, coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. They are also vulnerable to changes in the frequency and intensity of storms, increased precipitation, and rising ocean temperatures. Ten percent of the world's population live in coastal areas that are less than 10 metres (33 ft) above sea level. Two thirds of the world's cities with over five million people are located in these low-lying coastal areas.[166] About 600 million people live directly on the coast around the world.[167] Cities such as Miami, Rio de Janeiro, Osaka and Shanghai will be especially vulnerable later in the century under warming of 3 °C (5.4 °F). This is close to the current trajectory.[13][41] LiDAR-based research had established in 2021 that 267 million people worldwide lived on land less than 2 m (6+1⁄2 ft) above sea level. With a 1 m (3+1⁄2 ft) sea level rise and zero population growth, that could increase to 410 million people.[168][169]
Potential disruption of sea trade and migrations could impact people living further inland. United Nations Secretary-General
On ecosystems
Flooding and soil/water salinization threaten the habitats of
Some ecosystems can move inland with the high-water mark. But natural or artificial barriers prevent many from migrating. This coastal narrowing is sometimes called 'coastal squeeze' when it involves human-made barriers. It could result in the loss of habitats such as
Corals are important for bird and fish life. They need to grow vertically to remain close to the sea surface in order to get enough energy from sunlight. The corals have so far been able to keep up the vertical growth with the rising seas, but might not be able to do so in the future.[189]
Adaptation
Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can slow and stabilize the rate of sea level rise after 2050. This would greatly reduce its costs and damages, but cannot stop it outright. So climate change adaptation to sea level rise is inevitable.[190]: 3–127 The simplest approach is to stop development in vulnerable areas and ultimately move people and infrastructure away from them. Such retreat from sea level rise often results in the loss of livelihoods. The displacement of newly impoverished people could burden their new homes and accelerate social tensions.[191]
It is possible to avoid or at least delay the retreat from sea level rise with enhanced protections. These include
To be successful, adaptation must anticipate sea level rise well ahead of time. As of 2023, the global state of adaptation planning is mixed. A survey of 253 planners from 49 countries found that 98% are aware of sea level rise projections, but 26% have not yet formally integrated them into their policy documents. Only around a third of respondents from Asian and South American countries have done so. This compares with 50% in Africa, and over 75% in Europe, Australasia and North America. Some 56% of all surveyed planners have plans which account for 2050 and 2100 sea level rise. But 53% use only a single projection rather than a range of two or three projections. Just 14% use four projections, including the one for "extreme" or "high-end" sea level rise.
By region
Africa
In Africa, future population growth amplifies risks from sea level rise. Some 54.2 million people lived in the highly exposed low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) around 2000. This number will effectively double to around 110 million people by 2030, and then reach 185 to 230 million people by 2060. By then, the average regional sea level rise will be around 21 cm, with little difference from climate change scenarios.[22] By 2100, Egypt, Mozambique and Tanzania are likely to have the largest number of people affected by annual flooding amongst all African countries. And under RCP8.5, 10 important cultural sites would be at risk of flooding and erosion by the end of the century.[22]
In the near term, some of the largest displacement is projected to occur in the
Asia
Asia has the largest population at risk from sea level due to its dense coastal populations. As of 2022, some 63 million people in East and South Asia were already at risk from a 100-year flood. This is largely due to inadequate coastal protection in many countries. Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam alone account for 70% of people exposed to sea level rise during the 21st century.[18][201] Sea level rise in Bangladesh is likely to displace 0.9-2.1 million people by 2050. It may also force the relocation of up to one third of power plants as early as 2030, and many of the remaining plants would have to deal with the increased salinity of their cooling water.[18][202] Nations like Bangladesh, Vietnam and China with extensive rice production on the coast are already seeing adverse impacts from saltwater intrusion.[203]
Modelling results predict that Asia will suffer direct economic damages of US$167.6 billion at 0.47 meters of sea level rise. This rises to US$272.3 billion at 1.12 meters and US$338.1 billion at 1.75 meters. There is an additional indirect impact of US$8.5, 24 or 15 billion from population displacement at those levels. China, India, the
By 2050, Guangzhou would see 0.2 meters of sea level rise and estimated annual economic losses of US$254 million – the highest in the world.
Australasia
In
Central and South America
By 2100, coastal flooding and erosion will affect at least 3-4 million people in
Europe
Many sandy coastlines in Europe are vulnerable to erosion due to sea level rise. In Spain, Costa del Maresme is likely to retreat by 16 meters by 2050 relative to 2010. This could amount to 52 meters by 2100 under RCP8.5[209] Other vulnerable coastlines include the Tyrrhenian Sea coast of Italy's Calabria region,[210] the Barra-Vagueira coast in Portugal[211] and Nørlev Strand in Denmark.[212]
In France, it was estimated that 8,000-10,000 people would be forced to migrate away from the coasts by 2080.
The
North America
As of 2017, around 95 million Americans lived on the coast. The figures for
Along an estimated ~15% of the US coastline, the majority of local
By 2050, coastal flooding in the US is likely to rise tenfold to four "moderate" flooding events per year. That forecast is even without storms or heavy rainfall.
By 2100, sea level rise of 0.9 m (3 ft) and 1.8 m (6 ft) would threaten 4.2 and 13.1 million people in the US, respectively. In
Island nations
Small island states are nations with populations on
Adaptation to sea level rise is costly for small island nations as a large portion of their population lives in areas that are at risk.
See also
- Climate emergency declaration
- Coastal development hazards
- Effects of climate change on oceans
- List of countries by average elevation
- Paleoclimate
- Rising Seas (song)
References
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- ^ 27-year Sea Level Rise – TOPEX/JASON NASA Visualization Studio, 5 November 2020. This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- S2CID 234098716. Fig. 4.
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External links
- Vital signs / Sea level
- Sea level change / Observations from space (links to multiple measurements)
- Fourth National Climate Assessment Sea Level Rise Key Message
- Incorporating Sea Level Change Scenarios at the Local Level Outlines eight steps a community can take to develop site-appropriate scenarios
- The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)
- USA Sea Level Rise Viewer (NOAA)